HANOI – The proportion of goods imported into the United States that originated from China has declined to its lowest point in over two decades, a stark consequence of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Despite this significant reduction in direct trade, Washington continues to exhibit a substantial reliance on Chinese product content through indirect trade channels, according to a comprehensive industry report unveiled on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, in Hanoi. The findings were presented by Steven Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, during a press conference that drew significant attention from international media and trade analysts.
The report, titled "Navigating the Shifting Sands of Global Trade: The Enduring Influence of China in US Imports," meticulously analyzes trade data spanning several decades, with a particular focus on the period following the initiation of the US-China trade war in 2018. The research indicates that the direct share of Chinese-manufactured goods in the total value of US imports has dwindled to approximately 15%, a figure not seen since the early 2000s. This marks a notable departure from the peak years, when China accounted for as much as a quarter of all US import value.
Background: The Genesis of the Trade Imbalance and US Policy Response
The roots of this trade dynamic can be traced back to the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a period characterized by China’s rapid industrialization and its emergence as the "world’s factory." This transformation allowed American consumers and businesses access to a vast array of affordable goods, from electronics and apparel to machinery and consumer durables. However, this growing trade imbalance also fueled concerns within the United States regarding job losses in manufacturing sectors, intellectual property theft, and what was perceived as unfair trade practices by Beijing.
The Trump administration, elected in 2016 on a platform that emphasized "America First" and a more protectionist trade policy, made addressing the US-China trade deficit a central pillar of its economic agenda. In 2018, the US initiated a series of retaliatory tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese imports, citing national security concerns and the need to rebalance trade relations. China, in turn, responded with its own tariffs on American goods. This tit-for-tat tariff exchange became a defining feature of the global economic landscape for the next several years, leading to significant disruptions in supply chains and increased costs for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Pacific.
The Report’s Key Findings: Decoupling and the Rise of Indirect Trade
Steven Altman, the lead author of the DHL report, elaborated on the multifaceted nature of these trade shifts. "What we are observing is a clear and quantifiable decoupling in direct trade flows," Altman stated at the Hanoi press conference. "Companies have actively sought to diversify their sourcing away from China, spurred by the increased cost of tariffs, geopolitical uncertainties, and a desire for greater supply chain resilience. This has led to a notable surge in imports from countries such as Vietnam, Mexico, India, and Taiwan, which have increasingly filled the void left by reduced Chinese shipments."
The report quantifies this shift by presenting data on the origin of components and finished goods. For instance, the share of US imports directly labeled "Made in China" has decreased. However, the analysis delves deeper, examining the "content" of these imports. This means tracing the origins of sub-components and raw materials that are incorporated into final products assembled in third countries.
"The crucial insight from our research is that while the final assembly might now be happening in Vietnam or Mexico, a significant proportion of the value embedded in those goods still originates from China," Altman explained. "This could be anything from the microchips in electronics to the fabric in apparel, or the specialized machinery used in manufacturing. This indirect reliance highlights the enduring and complex integration of China into global value chains, even as direct trade relationships are being recalibrated."
Supporting Data and Chronology of Trade Shifts
The DHL report’s findings are supported by extensive data analysis, drawing from official trade statistics from the US Census Bureau, the World Trade Organization, and various national customs agencies. The research team meticulously tracked import values, tariff impacts, and shifts in sourcing patterns across key product categories.
- 2018: The US initiates significant tariffs on Chinese goods, marking the beginning of the trade war. China retaliates with its own tariffs.
- 2019-2021: The trade war intensifies, leading to increased trade diversion. US imports from countries like Vietnam and Mexico begin to show marked increases. Companies start actively exploring alternative manufacturing hubs.
- 2022: The US government under the Biden administration largely maintains the Trump-era tariffs, signaling a continuation of a more cautious approach to trade with China. Supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerate diversification efforts.
- 2023-2025: The trend of reduced direct Chinese imports continues. The report’s data for 2025 indicates the lowest direct import share in over two decades. Simultaneously, analysis of the "content" of imports reveals a persistent, albeit less visible, reliance on Chinese inputs through intermediate goods and components sourced from other Asian nations and North American countries.
The report presents specific examples:
- Electronics: While finished smartphones assembled in Vietnam may no longer be directly classified as Chinese imports, a substantial percentage of the critical components, such as semiconductors and displays, are still manufactured in mainland China or by Chinese-owned companies.
- Apparel: Textiles and synthetic fabrics that are processed and dyed in China are frequently shipped to neighboring countries for garment assembly, which are then exported to the US.
- Automotive Parts: While some automotive manufacturing has shifted to Mexico, key engine components, specialized electronics, and battery technologies often still trace their origins back to Chinese suppliers.
Reactions from Related Parties and Expert Analysis
The release of the report has elicited varied responses from industry stakeholders and trade experts. While many acknowledge the significant shift in direct trade, the nuances of indirect reliance are a point of considerable discussion.
A spokesperson for the US Chamber of Commerce, speaking anonymously due to ongoing trade policy discussions, commented, "This report underscores the complexity of global supply chains. While we support efforts to diversify sourcing and reduce over-reliance on any single country, it’s crucial to understand the full picture of where value is created. The administration needs to consider these indirect dependencies when formulating future trade policies."
Economists have weighed in on the implications. Dr. Emily Carter, a professor of international economics at the National University of Singapore, who was not directly involved in the report but has reviewed its findings, stated, "The report effectively highlights a phenomenon known as ‘trade deflection’ or ‘tariff avoidance.’ Companies are adept at finding ways to circumvent trade barriers, often by reconfiguring their production processes. This doesn’t necessarily signify a complete decoupling from China’s industrial ecosystem, but rather a sophisticated adaptation to a new trade environment."
She added, "The challenge for policymakers is to distinguish between genuine diversification that enhances economic security and strategic resilience, and merely shifting the point of origin without fundamentally altering the underlying dependencies. The report’s focus on ‘content’ is critical in this regard."
Broader Impact and Implications for Global Trade
The findings of the DHL report carry significant implications for the future of global trade and economic policy.
- Supply Chain Reconfiguration: The report confirms that the trend of supply chain diversification is not a temporary phenomenon but a structural shift driven by geopolitical realities and the pursuit of resilience. This will continue to benefit countries that can offer competitive manufacturing capabilities and stable business environments.
- Enduring Chinese Influence: Despite reduced direct trade, China’s role as a critical supplier of raw materials, intermediate goods, and manufacturing expertise remains substantial. This suggests that a complete disengagement from China’s industrial base is neither feasible nor necessarily desirable for many global industries in the short to medium term.
- Policy Challenges: For the United States, the report poses a challenge. Policymakers aiming to reduce economic leverage from China must develop strategies that address not only direct imports but also the indirect flow of goods and components. This may involve greater scrutiny of the origins of inputs for goods assembled elsewhere or investments in domestic production of critical components.
- Competitive Landscape: The increased diversification of sourcing presents both opportunities and challenges for other manufacturing nations. While some have benefited from the shift, they now face the prospect of increased competition and the need to continuously enhance their own industrial capabilities and infrastructure to attract and retain foreign investment.
- Consumer Costs: The report implicitly suggests that while tariffs have reduced direct imports from China, the costs associated with rerouting supply chains and the continued reliance on intermediate goods may continue to influence consumer prices. The complexity of tracing and managing these indirect flows can also lead to increased operational costs for businesses.
In conclusion, the DHL Initiative on Globalization report provides a nuanced and data-driven perspective on the evolving trade relationship between the US and China. While direct imports of Chinese goods have reached a historic low, the intricate web of global supply chains means that Beijing’s influence on the US market persists through indirect channels. This reality necessitates a sophisticated and forward-looking approach to trade policy, one that acknowledges the complex interplay of direct and indirect dependencies in shaping the future of international commerce. The ongoing recalibration of global trade patterns is a dynamic process, and the insights from this report will undoubtedly inform future discussions and strategic decisions by governments and businesses worldwide.