Despite the sweeping migration of general advertising dollars towards sophisticated digital and streaming platforms, broadcast television is poised to capture the lion’s share of political advertising expenditure in the lead-up to the crucial 2025-26 election cycle. This counter-trend highlights broadcast’s enduring, almost anachronistic, relevance in the high-stakes arena of electoral politics, even as its broader commercial influence wanes. The upcoming cycle is projected to shatter previous records, with an unprecedented $11.6 billion in total spending anticipated, surpassing the $11.2 billion allocated during the 2024 presidential election cycle and significantly eclipsing the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms. This surge underscores the escalating financial intensity of modern political campaigns and the strategic choices made by strategists in reaching voters.
The Enduring Power of Local Airwaves
Advertising intelligence firm AdImpact forecasts that approximately $5.6 billion of the total political ad spend for the 2025-26 cycle, representing a substantial 48%, will be directed towards broadcast television companies. This allocation stands in stark contrast to broadcast’s diminishing role in the broader advertising landscape, where it accounts for a mere 7.7% of the more than $470 billion in general advertising spend projected for this year in the United States, according to Magna data published by S&P Global in July. The disparity reveals a unique calculus applied to political campaigns, where traditional media’s attributes are still highly valued.
Industry experts point to the fundamentally local nature of electoral contests as a primary driver for broadcast’s continued appeal. "It’s still a local game," explains StoneX Equity Research Analyst Daniel Kurnos. "Yes, there are national elections, but you have to win counties. And if you have to win counties, you have to reach voters in these counties." Broadcast television, with its network of local affiliate stations (NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox), offers unparalleled penetration into specific geographic markets, allowing campaigns to tailor messages directly to regional concerns and voter demographics. This granular reach is often more challenging and costly to replicate with the same level of ubiquity across fragmented digital platforms.
Demographics, Trust, and Accessibility: Broadcast’s Core Strengths
A key factor underpinning broadcast’s dominance is its audience profile. Kurnos notes that broadcast audiences are generally more politically active, making them a prime target for campaign messaging. "You cater to the demos that vote. You cater to the votes that matter," he asserts. This strategic targeting ensures that precious ad dollars are spent on individuals more likely to engage with political content and ultimately cast a ballot.
Terry Nelson, a founding partner of Plus Communications and the national political director for former President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, highlights the cost-efficiency of broadcast spots in reaching large numbers of voters. Despite the widespread phenomenon of "cord-cutting," where consumers abandon traditional cable subscriptions for streaming alternatives, broadcast television remains freely accessible to anyone with an antenna. This universal availability ensures that campaigns can reach a broad cross-section of the electorate, including those who may not have access to paid streaming services or robust internet connections.
Recent data from Nielsen’s "The Gauge" report further illustrates broadcast’s enduring reach. In July, broadcast television captured more hours of viewing than cable, accounting for 19.5% of total television use, compared to cable’s 18.7%. While streaming undeniably leads overall television consumption at 49%, broadcast’s ability to draw substantial, consistent viewership, particularly for live events, remains a critical asset. Nelson specifically points to live sports games, such as NFL broadcasts, as prime opportunities for campaigns to connect with vast, diverse audiences. "If you think about an NFL audience, for example, you’re still going to deliver big audiences amongst large segments of the population," he explains. "So no matter how you dice that demographic, whether it’s men, women, or old people, young people, or whatever the case might be, the NFL game is still going to deliver large segments of all of those audiences."
Beyond reach, trust emerges as a paramount factor. Brad Seitter, CEO of TVB, a trade organization representing the local broadcast industry, succinctly summarizes broadcast’s strength during election cycles as stemming from "trust, reach and because it works." He emphasizes that television’s perceived reliability is invaluable for political campaigns. "Gaining the trust of a voter equals a vote for your candidate or issue," Seitter states. He further argues that broadcast fosters a greater sense of credibility than many digital channels. "You may see a political ad on social media, but you don’t trust the content of the ad because users are conditioned to not trust what they hear or see on social media," Seitter observes. "Conversely, viewers trust their local broadcast TV news, so when they view a political ad, they are more likely to believe the content of the ad on a platform they know has long-standing rules, regulations and trust." This perception of trustworthiness, cultivated over decades, provides a significant advantage in an era marked by widespread misinformation and skepticism towards online content.
The Weight of History: Strategic Prowess and "Muscle Memory"
The continued reliance on broadcast television by political campaigns is not merely an act of habit but is also rooted in a long history of demonstrated effectiveness. Seitter asserts that "Nothing moves the needle in polling like running an ad on broadcast TV," citing a TVB study where 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans identified broadcast or cable television as the most influential advertising medium in shaping their vote. This indicates a strong, quantifiable impact on voter behavior.
Erik Brydges, head of performance and political demand at sell-side ad company Magnite, acknowledges this historical efficacy, noting that "There are multiple studies out there that show a correlation between the number of points you buy on TV in relation to moving poll numbers, because the medium’s been around for like 70 years." This deep-seated understanding of broadcast’s influence, coupled with established metrics and best practices, provides a comforting level of predictability for campaign strategists operating in a highly volatile environment.
However, Brydges also suggests that "muscle memory" plays a significant role. Many seasoned political consultants and campaign staff have spent their careers navigating the broadcast television landscape, becoming adept at its intricacies. "A lot of campaigns and a lot of the consultants who work on the campaigns have just been really used to buying TV," Brydges explains. He quips, "There’s an old adage out there that no political consultant is ever going to get fired for suggesting buying more TV." This institutional inertia, combined with a proven track record, contributes to broadcast’s sustained appeal, even as newer, more technologically advanced options emerge. The perceived safety and reliability of a tried-and-true method often outweigh the potential benefits of venturing into less familiar digital territories, especially when electoral outcomes are on the line.
A Financial Windfall for Broadcasters
The impending surge in political ad spending represents a substantial financial boon for publicly traded broadcasters, offering a much-needed revenue stream in an otherwise challenging media landscape. Companies like Nexstar Media Group, Gray Media, Sinclair, and E.W. Scripps have already reported significant political advertising revenue in their most recent fiscal quarters, with forecasts for continued growth as the midterms draw nearer.
StoneX’s Kurnos highlights that this "low-lift revenue" from political advertising is crucial for broadcasters, particularly in managing their debt loads. He explains, "They have all the infrastructure in place for [standard advertising] already. And you don’t need to work on the creative. You don’t need to work on the selling… Political is just, therefore, pure margin dollars." This means that political ad sales often translate directly into profit, requiring minimal additional investment or operational overhead for the broadcasters.
Nexstar, for instance, which operates or owns an impressive portfolio of at least 265 stations, along with numerous websites and mobile apps, reported its highest quarterly revenue in company history. Its net revenue reached $1.99 billion, with advertising revenue contributing $862 million, according to its August earnings report. While the acquisition of broadcast rival Tegna in March significantly boosted overall revenue, the company also reported substantial fiscal second-quarter growth from its legacy operations, primarily driven by $75 million in political advertising revenue.
Gray Media, while smaller in operational scale than Nexstar, is also positioned to benefit significantly. Kurnos points out that Gray’s stations operate in several markets featuring highly competitive races, which are typically magnets for increased ad spending. Gray boasts exposure in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races, making it a prime recipient of political ad dollars. "Gray has always been the most efficient political generator of the broadcast group," he notes, underscoring its strategic market positioning.
Similarly, Sinclair and E.W. Scripps have cited political ad revenue as a strong point in their recent earnings reports. E.W. Scripps announced its highest second-quarter political ad revenue ever, while Sinclair reported a 9% growth in political ad revenue compared to the second quarter of 2022. Adam Symson, CEO of E.W. Scripps, confidently asserted on the company’s second-quarter earnings call, "No other medium delivers a political message as powerfully and reliably as broadcast television," encapsulating the industry’s perspective on its unique value proposition.
The Next Frontier: The Rise of Connected TV (CTV)
While broadcast television maintains its stronghold, the political advertising landscape is not static. Connected TV (CTV), encompassing internet-connected devices such as Apple TV and Roku, represents the fastest-growing category of political advertising spend, according to AdImpact. This nascent but rapidly expanding segment is projected to capture 23%, or $2.7 billion, of this cycle’s ad spending, and its share is expected to continue expanding in future cycles.
Magnite’s Brydges observes that the complex and evolving nature of CTV and free, ad-supported streaming (FAST) channels (like Pluto TV or Tubi) has, until recently, deterred some advertisers from fully capitalizing on their high viewership numbers. Many political campaigns and consultants, accustomed to traditional media buying, may not fully grasp the intricacies of these newer platforms. "If you look at some of the FAST streaming services – some of your Plutos, your Tubis – a campaign or a consultant might not understand what those are," Brydges explains. "Therefore, they might just be like, ‘Well, if I don’t understand what it is, then it’s probably not worth investment.’"
However, this apprehension is diminishing as political consultants become more familiar with the benefits offered by these platforms. Pia Carusone, who manages the political advertising department at SKDK, highlights streaming’s sophisticated audience targeting capabilities as a key advantage. Unlike traditional broadcast advertising, where buying a spot on a major network in a city like New York means reaching the entire market, streaming and CTV platforms offer granular targeting. "Increasingly, now with the streaming and CTV platforms, they’re able to really offer a lot more nuance in their targeting," Carusone notes. "So we’re able to sort of deliver against those audiences more directly." This precision targeting allows campaigns to reach specific demographic groups or voters with particular interests, optimizing ad spend and message delivery.
A Blended Strategy for Modern Campaigns
Ultimately, the evolving political advertising strategy emphasizes a diverse portfolio. As Carusone aptly puts it, "You can’t just do digital. You can’t just do linear." Modern political campaigns, to maximize their impact and navigate the fragmented media landscape, are increasingly adopting a multi-channel approach. "Good buyers today are buying across the spectrum," she concludes. This integrated strategy combines the broad, trusted reach of broadcast television with the precise targeting and emerging audience segments of connected TV and other digital platforms.
The 2025-26 election cycle is set to be a crucible for this blended approach, demonstrating how traditional and nascent media platforms coalesce to influence voter sentiment. While broadcast television holds its ground as a foundational element of political outreach, the accelerating growth of CTV signals a future where data-driven precision and ubiquitous access will continue to reshape how candidates connect with the electorate. The record-breaking spending forecast underscores not only the intensity of political competition but also the strategic imperative for campaigns to adapt to a media environment that is simultaneously traditional and hyper-modern. The implications for the media industry are clear: political advertising remains a critical revenue stream for broadcasters, while simultaneously fueling the growth and innovation in the digital advertising sector, pushing both to evolve in pursuit of the ultimate prize: the voter’s trust and ballot.
